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Elon Musk says BTC ‘will make it’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Elon Musk says BTC ‘will make it’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week – Bitcoin (BTC) is off to a rocky start for the new week after posting its lowest weekly closing in the past two years.

The largest cryptocurrency has continued to struggle with the consequences of the collapse of the FTX exchange a week ago, which caused it to suffer significant losses.

Investors are uncertain about what will happen next in a market that is becoming increasingly unstable as a growing number of companies sound the alarm over solvency and regulators ratchet up their probes in the cryptocurrency area.

The tone of the majority is one of profound fear, and even some of the most well-known personalities in the sector are sounding the alarm that it has been put back several years as a direct result of the events that occurred last week.

At the same time, business as usual has being carried out regarding Bitcoin. FTX is not the first catastrophe of this kind that the network has overcome, and underneath everything, the network is just as strong as it was before.

As the typical Bitcoin holder attempts to come to terms with recent significant losses and continuous volatility, Cointelegraph examines the factors that are likely to influence the price action of Bitcoin in the days ahead.

The cryptocurrency market is bracing for further FTX fallout

Even while there is very little that can be said with absolute certainty about the current state of the cryptocurrency market, it is reasonable to claim that FTX and the events that followed it are now the primary driver of price volatility in bitcoin.

According to information provided by Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, the weekly chart says it all with a -$5,500 “red” candle for the seven days leading up to November 13 and the lowest weekly closing seen since the middle of November 2020.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

After falling to a low of $15,780 on Bitstamp overnight, the Bitcoin to US Dollar exchange rate has since recovered to around that previous close of $16,300. This comes as a welcome relief bounce for traders.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

When it comes to FTX, the tale is not even close to being done. Firms that have exposure to the exchange and connected businesses have found themselves in a difficult situation.

Commentators predict that as a result of the knock-on consequences, more and more crypto names will be forced out of business in the following days and weeks. As a result of this, there may be repeat performances.

Particular attention is being focused on exchanges, with Crypto.com, KuCoin, and others becoming possible suspects because to concerns over their liquidity.

Earlier in the day, there was a significant increase in the number of withdrawal transactions that took place at Crypto.com and Gate.io. This led to warnings that the exchange may become the most recent one to experience a “bank run” as investors attempted to regain control of their funds.

On November 13, according to data provided by the on-chain analytics company CryptoQuant, 1,500 BTC were transferred out of Gate.io. As of right now, nearly 800 BTC have been transferred out of Gate.io, and this number is continuing to rise.

Bitcoin outflows (Gate.io) chart. Source: CryptoQuant

In a broader sense, the data revealed that the BTC reserves of exchanges stood at an estimated 2.09 million BTC; however, CryptoQuant pointed out that this figure may not accurately reflect the current state of affairs because of the turmoil.

When reserves were previously at such a low level, it was at the beginning of 2018.

Bitcoin exchange reserves chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin surges from $15,700 as Elon Musk expresses confidence in the cryptocurrency

Predicting the price of bitcoin in light of the continued unpredictability surrounding the cryptocurrency is therefore not an easy assignment.

When analyst Matthew Hyland turned his attention to the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), he issued a warning that the 3-day chart for BTC/USD was about to repeat a bearish setup that had previously resulted in losses both times it appeared in 2022.

According to what he had said, “Bitcoin 3-Day MACD is in position to cross Bearish tomorrow for the first time since April.”

“If BTC is able to obtain positive price movement before the 3-Day shuts, then it is possible to avoid it. During the course of the previous year, the previous two crossings led to more price movement in the negative direction.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Matthew Hyland/ Twitter

Hyland did point out, however, that following the breach that occurred on Mt. Gox in 2014, it took Bitcoin a little over a year to establish a macro price bottom after the initial shock.

He went on to say that it hasn’t even been 11 days since FTX stopped trading.

In the meantime, another expert by the name of Il Capo of Crypto suggested that the market was ready for a “final surrender” and that it may occur sooner rather than later.

In a series of tweets, he predicted that this would occur in the shape of a “bull trap” first, followed by a forceful rejection that would cause the market to reach new lows.

According to him, the decline in value of cryptocurrencies would equal to “40-50 percent on average.”

The well-known trader Crypto Tony was concerned that on shorter timescales, even the lowest weekly close in two years would not be enough to act as support for the price.

He commented on the recovery from $15,780 intraday lows by saying, “Nice breakout, but if we cannot hold the swing low at $16,400 then this was just a fake out and we wait for a test lower.” This was in reference to the price of bitcoin.

The decision was made when Elon Musk, the CEO of Twitter, came out in favour of the action.

In a discussion taking place on Twitter at the time, he stated: “BTC will make it, but it could be a hard winter.”

Twitter debate (screenshot). Source: Twitter

A further short-term price catalyst came about as a result of the largest exchange, Binance, deciding to establish a dedicated recovery fund with the intention of assisting businesses in remaining protected.

The focus this week is on the connection between stock prices

The situation in the world outside cryptocurrency provides more evidence that FTX has been a “black swan” event for the cryptocurrency sector.

While Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were busy suffering losses of over 25% in a matter of days, stock markets in the United States were able to recover from losses sustained earlier in the month.

As a consequence of this, the research firm Santiment notes that there is a clear divergence occurring between Bitcoin and risk assets, and this is helping to break a correlation that has persisted throughout the course of the previous year.

“As the trading work week closes, the week’s story is the distinct separation between crypto (after FTX’s fall from grace), and equities,” it summarised in a tweet last week: “As the trading work week closes, the week’s story is the distinct separation between crypto (after FTX’s fall from grace).”

“A bullish divergence is forming between the $BTC market and the SP500,” the author writes, “should $BTC traders’ trust recover after unfortunate events.”

BTC, ETH vs. stocks, gold correlation annotated chart. Source: Santiment/ Twitter

A analyst on financial markets named Holger Zschaepitz also pointed out that the performance gap between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has been growing.

“Gap in weekly performance of tumbling Bitcoin, Nasdaq’s greatest rise since 2020,” A portion of fresh comments that were viewed on the day read as follows: “The crypto world shrunk to the equivalent of 1% of global stocks.”

As the strength of the US dollar makes some wild fluctuations of its own, this lessening connection may come at an opportune moment from a macroeconomic point of view.

Following an unsuccessful attempt to rebound past 107 prior to the opening of trading on Wall Street on November 14, the U.S. dollar index, also known as the DXY, indicated that risk assets should increase as a result.

Any rebound towards recent highs, on the other hand, might cause the picture to quickly take on a totally different appearance.

Despite this, the DXY index returned to support after testing it for the first time since the middle of August after reaching intraday lows.

U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

However, in a commentary on the performance over a longer period of time, the well-known trading firm Stockmoney Lizards stated that DXY had broken a parabolic curve that had been in place since 2021.

A portion of the comments on Twitter added, “Correction will be beneficial for Bitcoin.”

U.S. dollar index (DXY) annotated chart. Source: Stockmoney Lizards/ Twitter

As mining sales stall, “buy the dip” frenzy sweeps the nation

Not everyone is sitting still, despite the fact that many existing holders are attempting to withdraw coins from exchanges or are trying to figure out how to minimise their losses.

On-chain data reveals that when BTC/USD hit multi-year lows last week, investors of all sizes took advantage of the chance to “buy the dip” and increase their holdings of bitcoin.

The on-chain analytics company Glassnode reported that there was a significant rise in the number of wallets holding between one and ten BTC.

Bitcoin addresses with 1-10 BTC chart. Source: Glassnode

The “mega whales” of Bitcoin, who make up the largest group of Bitcoin holders, appear to be following the same pattern as other Bitcoin holders. According to the data provided by Glassnode, the number of these organisations that have a wallet balance of 10,000 BTC or more has recently reached almost 130.

Crypto Rover, a popular social media commentator, responded to the news by saying, “Whales are accumulating at a pace never seen before.”

Bitcoin addresses with 10,000 BTC or more chart. Source: Glassnode

Miners, on the other hand, are a group that are most definitely not in accumulation mode at the moment. Even after a significant decrease in their reserves the previous week, the amount of Bitcoin held by miners that are tracked by CryptoQuant is continuing to go down.

As of the time this article was written on November 14, miners’ reserves had decreased to 1,853,606 BTC, down from a total of 1,858,271 BTC on November 8.

In spite of this, reserves are still higher than they were at the beginning of 2022, and recent sales amount to a negligible portion of miners’ overall position.

Bitcoin miner reserves chart. Source: CryptoQuant

The results of the sentiment analysis provide a glimmer of hope

As was to be expected, the general sentiment of the cryptocurrency market as a whole took a significant hit as a result of FTX; however, is the situation really that dire?

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index suggests that the industry may be taking the recent string of negative news in stride, despite the fact that this may be the case.

Over the course of the weekend, the Index’s score dropped to a local low of 20/100, firmly establishing “extreme fear” as the prevailing sentiment in the market.

This represents a drop of fifty percent from the high point of forty out of one hundred, which was seen on November 6 and marked a sentiment high point for the past three months.

Despite this, 2022 has produced significantly lower scores, with the Fear & Greed index reaching a mere 6 out of 100 by the end of the year.

Even a fresh 50% drop from current levels would only take sentiment to the area that normally marks macro price bottoms for BTC/USD, which is around 10/100. This would be the case even if further fallout were to take place.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
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